Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 04 2020 | 8039 | 38754 | 250 | 59 | 703 | 1109 |
| December 05 2020 | 8099 | 38881 | 253 | 61 | 620 | 1024 |
| December 06 2020 | 8149 | 39004 | 254 | 62 | 586 | 967 |
| December 07 2020 | 8178 | 39102 | 254 | 63 | 615 | 928 |
| December 08 2020 | 8207 | 39214 | 257 | 63 | 546 | 871 |
| December 09 2020 | 8270 | 39342 | 257 | 64 | 514 | 791 |
| December 10 2020 | 8326 | 39458 | 257 | 65 | 536 | 763 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.1 | 6.9% | 37 | 0.32% | 45 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.4 | 11.9% | 64 | 0.47% | 85 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 13.1 | 27.6% | 148 | 0.71% | 212 | 1.01% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 9.7 | 18.3% | 98 | 0.72% | 136 | 1% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.9 | 11.2% | 60 | 0.57% | 87 | 0.83% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6.9 | 13.1% | 70 | 0.56% | 96 | 0.76% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4.1 | 7.6% | 41 | 0.36% | 64 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.6 | 3.4% | 18 | 0.17% | 38 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 56 | 52.9 | 100% | 536 | 0.51% | 763 | 0.73% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 04 2020 | 5051 | 23328 | 141 | 53 | 675 | 1082 |
| December 05 2020 | 5140 | 23414 | 145 | 55 | 685 | 965 |
| December 06 2020 | 5185 | 23476 | 147 | 55 | 655 | 930 |
| December 07 2020 | 5218 | 23536 | 149 | 55 | 687 | 914 |
| December 08 2020 | 5249 | 23588 | 151 | 57 | 714 | 873 |
| December 09 2020 | 5277 | 23648 | 152 | 57 | 679 | 822 |
| December 10 2020 | 5314 | 23878 | 153 | 58 | 648 | 784 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.7 | 4.5% | 29 | 0.37% | 37 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.1 | 9.1% | 59 | 0.7% | 76 | 0.9% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 8.9 | 18.1% | 117 | 1.65% | 130 | 1.83% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 7.7 | 18.1% | 117 | 1.39% | 134 | 1.59% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 7.3 | 17.3% | 112 | 1.44% | 134 | 1.73% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.9 | 12.8% | 83 | 0.86% | 102 | 1.05% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.6 | 8.5% | 55 | 0.65% | 69 | 0.82% |
| 70+ | 2 | 5.1 | 11.7% | 76 | 1.07% | 102 | 1.43% |
| All ages | 37 | 46.3 | 100% | 648 | 1% | 784 | 1.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 04 2020 | 3754 | 15580 | 156 | 42 | 409 | 616 |
| December 05 2020 | 3802 | 15697 | 156 | 40 | 395 | 590 |
| December 06 2020 | 3844 | 15737 | 156 | 47 | 379 | 594 |
| December 07 2020 | 3854 | 15768 | 157 | 47 | 389 | 547 |
| December 08 2020 | 3870 | 15793 | 159 | 47 | 312 | 525 |
| December 09 2020 | 3905 | 15853 | 162 | 46 | 325 | 498 |
| December 10 2020 | 3931 | 15912 | 164 | 46 | 312 | 466 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.6 | 4.5% | 14 | 0.26% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.4 | 9.3% | 29 | 0.53% | 40 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 4.4 | 12.8% | 40 | 0.88% | 61 | 1.35% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 4.9 | 14.1% | 44 | 0.81% | 66 | 1.22% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.6 | 12.8% | 40 | 0.8% | 61 | 1.23% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.6 | 17.3% | 54 | 0.8% | 70 | 1.03% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.7 | 13.5% | 42 | 0.66% | 64 | 1.01% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.9 | 15.7% | 49 | 0.77% | 80 | 1.26% |
| All ages | 26 | 30.0 | 100% | 312 | 0.69% | 466 | 1.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 04 2020 | 8556 | 41411 | 180 | 39 | 1056 | 1475 |
| December 05 2020 | 8641 | 41604 | 181 | 39 | 990 | 1354 |
| December 06 2020 | 8677 | 41807 | 182 | 40 | 916 | 1337 |
| December 07 2020 | 8706 | 41889 | 182 | 40 | 893 | 1305 |
| December 08 2020 | 8833 | 42075 | 192 | 42 | 927 | 1333 |
| December 09 2020 | 8908 | 42369 | 195 | 42 | 897 | 1257 |
| December 10 2020 | 8948 | 42571 | 202 | 42 | 861 | 1187 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.3 | 4.4% | 38 | 0.32% | 48 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 9.7 | 12.1% | 104 | 0.63% | 143 | 0.86% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 15.7 | 20.1% | 173 | 0.81% | 228 | 1.07% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 12.7 | 16.7% | 144 | 1.06% | 194 | 1.43% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 10.1 | 13.5% | 116 | 0.85% | 155 | 1.14% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 12.3 | 15% | 129 | 0.91% | 179 | 1.26% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 7.7 | 10.5% | 90 | 0.63% | 125 | 0.88% |
| 70+ | 2 | 5.7 | 7.8% | 67 | 0.52% | 115 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 40 | 78.3 | 100% | 861 | 0.73% | 1187 | 1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 04 2020 | 28610 | 278095 | 837 | 102 | 2855 | 4293 |
| December 05 2020 | 28947 | 278814 | 845 | 104 | 2957 | 4293 |
| December 06 2020 | 29053 | 279749 | 850 | 104 | 2686 | 4187 |
| December 07 2020 | 29303 | 280474 | 855 | 104 | 2891 | 4297 |
| December 08 2020 | 29450 | 280669 | 866 | 107 | 2607 | 3695 |
| December 09 2020 | 29616 | 281148 | 883 | 108 | 2380 | 3626 |
| December 10 2020 | 29864 | 282086 | 887 | 109 | 2375 | 3497 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 12.0 | 4.6% | 109 | 0.18% | 174 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 45 | 30.9 | 13.1% | 312 | 0.44% | 462 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 68 | 52.9 | 22.2% | 528 | 0.51% | 764 | 0.74% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 38.1 | 16.9% | 401 | 0.52% | 583 | 0.76% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 30.9 | 13.7% | 326 | 0.5% | 495 | 0.75% |
| 50-59 | 28 | 30.6 | 12.5% | 296 | 0.45% | 435 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 25 | 20.3 | 8.6% | 204 | 0.37% | 283 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 17 | 18.4 | 8.4% | 199 | 0.4% | 301 | 0.61% |
| All ages | 248 | 234.0 | 100% | 2375 | 0.43% | 3497 | 0.64% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 04 2020 | 404555 | 2180320 | 17943 | 3625 | 40582 | 59610 |
| December 05 2020 | 409386 | 2188949 | 18126 | 3702 | 39944 | 58217 |
| December 06 2020 | 412177 | 2196722 | 18216 | 3719 | 37640 | 57501 |
| December 07 2020 | 414332 | 2202473 | 18286 | 3738 | 38495 | 56561 |
| December 08 2020 | 418446 | 2207950 | 18500 | 3806 | 37576 | 54473 |
| December 09 2020 | 422065 | 2216057 | 18715 | 3887 | 37364 | 52623 |
| December 10 2020 | 426099 | 2224578 | 18875 | 3944 | 38864 | 51562 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 191 | 183.0 | 4.5% | 1741 | 0.27% | 2357 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 487 | 420.7 | 10.9% | 4237 | 0.56% | 5740 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 656 | 620.4 | 16.8% | 6510 | 0.86% | 8593 | 1.14% |
| 30-39 | 608 | 607.6 | 16.3% | 6343 | 0.84% | 8248 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 593 | 542.7 | 14.5% | 5635 | 0.81% | 7449 | 1.07% |
| 50-59 | 656 | 590.7 | 15.5% | 6041 | 0.74% | 7883 | 0.97% |
| 60-69 | 440 | 421.7 | 11.4% | 4416 | 0.58% | 5849 | 0.77% |
| 70+ | 403 | 383.3 | 10.1% | 3941 | 0.62% | 5443 | 0.85% |
| All ages | 4034 | 3770.1 | 100% | 38864 | 0.67% | 51562 | 0.89% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.9 | 62.5 | 101.3 | 52.9 | 82 | 28.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121.3 | 46.3 | 49 | 32.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 30 | 47.1 | 34.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.4 | 86.4 | 107.1 | 78.3 | 95.9 | 28.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 65 | 73.6 | 234 | 338.6 | 25.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.6 | 75.8 | 113.5 | 3770.1 | 4289.3 | 32.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.53 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-31 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3577"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges